GDP, and Guesses about GDI, GDO

We don’t have estimates of GDI, but if we assume nominal net operating surpluses remain constant at 2022Q3 levels ($6.2 trn out of $26 trn GDI SAAR), then we have the following picture.

Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow of 2/16 (light green square), GDI (blue), with estimate for Q4, GDO (sky blue), with estimate for Q4, GDP+ (pink), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. 2022Q4 GDO based on GDI where net operating surplus set to equal 2021Q3 value. GDP+ level calculated by iterating growth rates on 2019Q4 actual GDP. Source: BEA, 2022Q4 advance, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.